When Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Belgrade on January 17, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic hopes to strike the right note. Literally.
Dacic is known for pounding a tune or two at high level meetings. And for Serbia there may be few meetings at a higher level than the planned meeting between Putin, the most popular foreign politician in Serbia, and Serb officials in Belgrade.
“Putin’s visits are usually short and there is little chance of a more relaxed atmosphere,” Dacic, who is also first deputy prime minister, recently told the daily Vecernje Novosti.
“[Putin] Likes to sing and I think my choice would be the most beautiful Russian song, Moscow Nights and of course Kalinka, “added Dacic.
Moscow Nights (Podmoskovnye Vechera) was a Soviet-era standard on Radio Moscow’s broadcasts, while Kalinka, one of the most famous Russian folk songs, is “an obligatory part” of the diplomatic repertoire he sang when meeting Russians and other Europeans, and even Americans who “enjoyed it and applauded,” he said.
Serbia and Russia have long had close cultural and economic ties, including Slavic cultural and Orthodox affinities.
The vector of development of Russian-Serbian relations in the New Year will certainly be determined by the visit of the Russian President to Serbia. “
And although Belgrade avows many Western-oriented goals, such as membership in the European Union, it has also worked to maintain close ties with Moscow, to take away its military equipment, to hold joint military exercises and to develop deeper economic ties.
For its part, Russia has blocked the international recognition of Kosovo as a sovereign state and joined Serbia, which refuses to recognize the 2008 secession of Kosovo from the former Yugoslavia. It also recently donated six MiG-29 fighter jets to Serbia to bolster Serbia’s military.
The Kremlin remains determined to maintain its presence in the region, and Putin’s visit, his 14th meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in the past six years, “is obviously part of that effort,” says Jasmin Mujanovic, a US-based Analyst and author of Hunger and Fury: The Crisis Of Democracy In The Balkans.
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“After its great success in Syria and its demonstration of strength in the Azov country, Russia is striving to continue to play its diplomatic muscles in its now larger foreign country,” he told RFE / RL, alluding to Putin’s alliance with embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Russian Actions since the annexation of the Ukrainian Crimea almost five years ago.
“Serbia and the Republika Srpska in Bosnia are central to this approach, at least as far as the Balkans are concerned. And for local strong men like Vucic and Milorad Dodik this is [Republika Srpska] As a member of the tripartite presidency of Bosnia-Herzegovina, Russia is the central pillar of its strategy to create parallel or even alternative agreements to the former hegemony of the EU-US consensus in the region, “he added.
Russia suffered several setbacks in the Balkans last year and aims to get back on track in 2019.
Macedonia is on the verge of ending a name dispute with Greece and thus possibly paving the way for NATO accession, which Moscow firmly rejects.
Serbia’s importance to Russia has apparently increased as the Kremlin tries to gain a foothold in a region where it has lost influence as former Yugoslav states like Croatia and Slovenia join the EU and NATO.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) meets with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in the Moscow Kremlin on October 2.
In Montenegro, which joined the transatlantic security alliance in 2017 and is seeking EU membership, a process continues to embroil Moscow in an attempted coup despite the Kremlin denying claims that “Russian state organs” were involved in the alleged plot.
But Moscow could have welcomed some other news from the region, including the election of Dodik in Bosnia, a Serb nationalist who has long courted the Kremlin. Dodik favors an independent Republika Srpska, which many analysts say will benefit Russia in its efforts to undermine the region’s western integration.
Russia has developed close ties with Bosnian-Serb unity through the provision of police training and the exchange of military knowledge.
Russia is also present through its Russian-Serbian humanitarian center in the southern Serbian city of Nis. Moscow has been pushing for the center to be given diplomatic status, a move that has sparked allegations in the West that it is being used by the Kremlin for intelligence gathering.
Meanwhile, Serbia continues to oppose US and EU sanctions against Moscow.
In a show about the Kremlin’s goal of settling for Serbia, Putin excellent last week Vucic was awarded the Aleksandr Nevsky Order, which is usually awarded to civil servants for at least 20 years of “highly deserving service” and is rarely awarded to foreigners.
Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic: “We can be even more efficient in the reforms that we are implementing.”
The award Vucic is likely to receive during the visit underscores Putin’s popularity with the majority of Serbs. A recent poll by Faktor Plus found that 57 percent named the Russian head of state as the most trustworthy foreign politician.
“Vucic is the first Serb in our time to receive this prestigious award, which in itself speaks volumes,” said Aleksandr Chepurin, Russia’s ambassador to Serbia.
Chepurin predicted that the situation in Kosovo would be high on the agenda of the Putin-Vucic meeting, as well as strengthening bilateral ties and cooperation in economic and social areas such as energy, trade, innovation, technological development and the digital economy.
“Protecting the interests of our countries, Russia and Serbia instead of satisfying the interests of the West – that is basically the philosophy of both the Russian and Serbian leadership,” he told Tanjug on January 2nd.
He suggested that “the vector of the development of Russian-Serbian relations in the New Year will certainly be determined by the visit of the Russian President to Serbia”.
Singing the praises of this kinship may be easy for some, but not all Serbs see the relationship as harmonious.
Serbia’s reliance on Russian support from the UN Security Council to keep Kosovo in check has given Moscow more leverage than some are comfortable and will continue to do so as long as the issue remains open, said James Ker-Lindsay , Professor at the London School of Economics.
Serbia’s economic prospects, meanwhile, are closer to deeper integration into structures like the European Union, he argued.
“In many Serbian circles, Russia appears to be suspicious. Many high-ranking officials understand that this is an unequal relationship and that Moscow’s favor cannot be relied on. It will pursue its own interests above those of Serbia, ”he told RFE / RL.
“The level of pro-Russian sentiment is often overestimated. Surveys have regularly shown that while Russia is a good friend of Serbia, not least in the whole of Kosovo, most Serbs do not believe that Russia is a shining example for the future they want. Given the choice, most Serbs still believe that the EU offers a better model for their future than Russia, “he added.
Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said last month that Serbia’s foreign policy priority remains EU accession and that “we can be even more effective in the reforms we carry out, largely because of our citizens”.
Given the government recently faced opposition-led protests by thousands of voters over a decline in Serbia’s democratic credentials and the use of state media for propaganda, Vucic hopes that Putin, who was once Blueberry Hill in a black tie Charity event sang, will not change its tune.
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