By Jahja Muhasilovic
BELGRADE
A two-day visit by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Serbia and his meeting with President Aleksandar Vucic caused a stir in the Balkans. This visit was on the regional media agenda long before Erdogan’s arrival in Serbia. The reason this bilateral meeting has attracted a lot of attention is that the two Heads of State and Government will be discussing issues that will have an impact on the Greater Region.
Turks satisfy the Balkans’ hunger for energy
When the idea for the visit was born during the UN General Assembly meeting in New York, it was agreed that two heads of state or government should speak about energy issues in the region, which is a big concern for both countries, especially after the downing of the EU through the EU “South Stream Project” in response to the Russian annexation of Crimea.
The eyes of regional politicians were on this project, as the majority of countries are almost entirely dependent on Russian gas.
However, the dismissal of the EU has left the region hungry for energy with no alternative. Shortly after Putin approached Turkey, Moscow offered to Ankara to build an alternative route that bypasses Ukraine and goes directly through Turkish territory, giving Turkey the opportunity to export that gas to Europe.
The Turkish government at the time accepted this offer in slight isolation after the notorious protests in Gezi Park were put down, but not many concrete steps have been taken since then. There was even a time when the project was canceled as part of the Kremlin’s countermeasures against Turkey because a Russian jet was shot down over Syrian territory in November 2015.
After two regional powers had gone through a wintry phase in bilateral relations, normalization came about when the Kremlin stood by Turkey’s side in the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016. After that, two countries decided to strengthen their ties like never before.
The two countries have pledged to deepen their ties further than they did before the 2015 aircraft incident.
As the clearest sign of weakening relations, most clearly in military cooperation, the Turkish side announced plans to purchase the Russian S-400 missile system.
This improvement in relations certainly had an impact on the Balkans, which we can follow through Erdogan’s visit, which coincided with a time when officials in Belgrade expressed their interest in energy routes.
Although the South Current was discussed a while ago, Erdogan is now the person to talk to.
The energy problem is the big one for the Balkans. After the southern current was switched off, the Ionian route – another alternative route preferred by the EU – has moved into focus.
On the other hand, the EU fears that the construction of the Turkish electricity would strengthen the position of Ankara and Moscow in the region at the expense of Brussels.
The EU is in an unfavorable position as it effectively forbids the Balkan countries from getting any closer to Turkey or Russia and thus gaining economic advantages, and it also does not offer any solutions.
This is an attitude that deepens the disappointment with the entire EU accession process. The EU members themselves – and not just the Balkan countries – need a larger number of energy sources.
Brussels is acting like a jealous police officer in its policy in the Western Balkans and yells at anyone who tries to invest in the region.
As the Serbian Minister for Mining and Energy, Aleksandar Antic, emphasized in an interview with the Serbian news portal Blic, the issue of energy is becoming less and less of an economic issue and more of a political and geopolitical issue.
Trilateral inequality
President Erdogan’s visit is not only important from an energetic point of view, but broader economic issues are expected to be discussed.
The Turkish president brought almost 200 business people with him.
Erdogan and Vucic also expanded a free trade agreement signed with the Tadic government in 2010.
Turkey is also aiming to buy sunflower oil directly from Serbia, contrary to the previous practice of buying it from Bosnia.
The trilateral economic cooperation between Serbia, Bosnia and Turkey is certainly mentioned. In recent years, Bosnia and the general condition of Bosniaks have become inevitable topics in talks between Belgrade and Ankara.
Overall, Turkey wants to bring Sarajevo and Belgrade together in their economic interests, as the recent initiative to set up a joint trade office for Bosnia and Serbia in Istanbul and many other trilateral meetings show.
Ankara wants Bosnia and Serbia to work together.
On road
The highway that would connect the Serbian capital with Sarajevo is another important project that the Serbian and Turkish communications ministers are expected to sign.
Turkey has shown the greatest interest in the construction of this highway so far. One of the first problems was the route of the motorway.
Everything is a political issue in the Balkans. Since the announcement of the project, the Bosnian-Serbian head of state Milorad Dodik has started campaigning for a route that runs through the territory of the Republika Srpska and further strengthens the economic ties between this entity and Serbia.
When asked about the project, he said, “It’s not our priority; some kind of highway that would end down there [Sarajevo]… but it should go through the territory of the Republika Srpska. ”
By securing his favorite route, he would guarantee better communication with Serbia, which in turn would strengthen his position vis-à-vis the central authority in Sarajevo and further weaken the authority of the Bosnian state.
The Bosniak politician understood the real threats to this route and advocated another route that would pass through the Federation.
There was even the idea that the route could lead through the Sandzak region and thus connect the Muslim Bosniaks living there to their mainland.
Sandzak’s project is an old idea supported by the Bosniak leaders in Serbia. Whether Belgrade will enable Bosniaks in Sandzak to establish stronger communication with Sarajevo about Serbia is another question.
Recently a former Mufti and now a member of the Serbian Parliament, Muamer Zukorlic, visited Bosnian President Bakir Izetbegovic to propose the “Sandzak Route” but apparently there is not much Izetbegovic can do on his own as this is a decision made by The leaders of the three countries must do together.
With Erdogan’s visit, it remains to be seen which options will prevail. But the region is also hungry for road infrastructure in the energy sector. There are many expectations for Erdogan’s meeting and the entire region will be following it very closely.
As recent economic and infrastructure projects have shown, Ankara could adopt a premise in its foreign policy to link the Bosnian economy with the Serbian one and as a general vision to reconcile Serbs and Bosniaks through economic cooperation.
At this point, however, the question arises how the Bosnian economy, which is already several times smaller than Serbia’s, can compete, especially given that Belgrade would always favor Bosnian Serbs – read Dodik – over Sarajevo.
Add to this Dodik’s plans for the highway to go through the Republika Srpska, which could make the problem even more difficult. Strengthening the communication and economic ties of the Republika Srpska with Serbia would certainly benefit Dodik’s ambitions to dissolve Bosnia and Herzegovina, a scenario Turkey normally does not see.
Especially because of the fact that he occasionally reminds him that Alija Izetbegovic left him Bosnia on the Emanet.
Historical trip to the Sandzak region
Another important part of Erdogan’s trip will be his visit to Novi Pazar, a city he last visited in 2010 as Prime Minister. A very sensitive visit is expected.
Turkey’s recent attempts to mediate between the two Islamic communities in Sandzak had not ended in the desired way.
Thus the two communities still remain divided. This “abandoned” region has great expectations for Turkey, from highways to airports, from the reconciliation of its divided politicians to the unification of its Islamic communities.
This will be an opportunity to see what progress has been made since the last high level visit.
The strategy that Ankara will follow after Erdogan’s visit could determine future developments in the region.
The success lies in Erdogan’s ability to influence Vucic on his attitude towards the unity of Republika Srpska, Dodik and Bosnia.
Ankara should urge Vucic to find a way for future cooperation between regional countries that would weaken separatist ambitions like Dodiks, or new agreements that would benefit all sides and leave no one else at the mercy.
One thing that should always be kept in mind is that Ankara must be careful not to inadvertently use Serbia at the expense of Bosnian interests and thus indirectly Dodik’s separatist ambitions.
At the moment Erdogan is in a superior economic position to ask Vucic to pressure Dodik to cooperate more with the central government in Sarajevo.
* The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policies of the Anadolu Agency.
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