Causes and penalties of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan (2): New wasp nest

EPA-EFE / MSgt. Donald R. Allen

The U.S. military is helping evacuate Afghans from Kabul

The Taliban are a special group. They were intoxicated by the glory of the great victory, but they did not change. Politicians say that these are some new forces, but that is not true.

Afghanistan will be a base for terrorist activities. The greatest danger is for extremist networks to gather in Afghanistan, and from there to start operating all over the world. From the aspect of global security, the situation is anything but favorable. In the future, new forms of activity of terrorist organizations will be shown.

This is how Zoran Dragisic, a professor at the Faculty of Security, comments on the global situation for “Vesti” after the withdrawal of American and NATO forces from Afghanistan.

What security implications can we expect for Serbia, taking into account the fact that Kosovo and Metohija is largely preparing for the reception of evacuated Afghans?

– There will be big problems. In general, the idea of ​​sending them to Kosovo and Metohija is not good, especially since KFOR forces will have a new job, protection of Afghan refugees, and not only the Serbian population. It should be borne in mind that a large number of fighters who took part in the wars in Syria and Iraq returned to the area of ​​Kosovo and Metohija, Albania and Northern Macedonia, and there were a large number of Albanians there. Refugees who came from Afghanistan will be considered traitors, and they will not be looked upon favorably. I am afraid that they will become the target of militant Islamist groups from Kosovo and Metohija, and that will affect Serbs as well, not only in Kosovo and Metohija, but also in the southern Serbian municipalities. What is most problematic for Serbia is that these asymmetric threats could jeopardize the Open Balkans initiative through the destabilization of partner countries.

CONCERNED: Zoran Dragisic

A few days ago, Tony Blair said that the reasons for the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan were not strategic, but political. What are the key reasons for this move?

– I think the key are political reasons. The withdrawal caused the other allies to withdraw, since the Americans gave the greatest contributions, and over 80 percent of them financed the war. We know that the previous presidents also discussed the withdrawal, so it is a political decision, because it turned out that the Taliban occupied Afghanistan without any problems, so it was not about military or security reasons, but about political ones.

How will the (infamous) end of the American war in Afghanistan affect America’s position as the world’s leading power?

– It will have a negative impact, primarily on relations within NATO. The partnership will have to be reconsidered, because although NATO is a club of sovereign states that make decisions by consensus, the United States is still the headquarters of NATO, and with this move they have shown that they will no longer be 90 percent of NATO, while everyone else is simple. ” attach ”. We also remember Trump’s statements on that, so that NATO will experience serious reform.

Geostrategic hole

Russia has shown a much greater degree of calm than Western countries at a time when the Taliban are advancing unstoppably towards Kabul, while the Taliban themselves have said that the Russians are giving them (self) political support. How do you look at it? Is there any doubt that Putin “mixed his fingers”?

– I don’t believe it. First, the decision to withdraw America was theirs, and I doubt that Putin can influence American decisions. The Taliban have left room for other forces to act, so the question is how the Chinese and Russians will react and whether they will fill this big geostrategic hole that remains in Afghanistan. It is certain that America has lost its influence in Central Asia for a long time.

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