Tanjug
Predrag Kon
“Mandatory vaccination is the last measure we are taking, but it must be known that it exists as an option and that we have a short period of time left. We had the whole of June and more than half of July to get vaccinated en masse, especially the young, and that time was wasted. “
This is what epidemiologist and member of the Crisis Staff Dr. Predrag Kon says.
According to Dr. Cohn, the epidemiological situation is deteriorating, but it is still a quiet period compared to earlier when we had dozens of more patients in hospitals.
– At the moment, we have a little more than 300 hospitalized, and it is known that the capacity in the hospitals was as much as 10,000 at one time. We are not in an urgent situation, but to make it worse – it is getting worse and faster. This is a fact that can be monitored from week to week, not only on the basis of the number of infected people, but also the percentage of detected positives from those who were tested – Dr. Kon points out.
However, we still have a peaceful situation in which, as Dr. Kon points out, we need to prepare for a sudden increase in the number of infected people.
– The happiness in all this is that we see that in countries where the wave has developed greatly, the number of those who stay in hospitals remains significantly smaller than it was the case before. This very clearly indicates that the vaccine has done its thing and ensured that those who get sick have a far milder form of the disease. On the other hand, there is an impression that the virus is changing and that it is no longer so virulent, although we do not yet have such evidence reliably – says Dr. Kon.
Four-digit number
However, we are witnessing the spread of delta strains, but as Dr. Cohn says, this variant is not yet the most dominant in the world.
– Currently, the delta strain is registered in more than 120 countries, while the alpha or British strain has affected almost 180 countries. However, that dominance and dominance in virus variants will continue. The delta variant is now making significant progress in our country as well, so we assume that the absolute dominance of delta strains in Serbia will be only at the end of August and the beginning of September – he states.
He is of the opinion that there could be a four-digit number of infected people in Serbia.
– We can see that in many European countries, even in certain countries the number of detected is approaching the maximum that was at the time when the pandemic was most intense. The potential of the delta variant is still very high, we must count on that and be very ready on that issue – warns Dr. Kon.
When it comes to how long this wave will last, Dr. Cohn points out that we must understand that we are directly influencing the natural course of the pandemic, perhaps even for the first time in human history.
– The reason for that is that mass vaccination is being carried out all over the world in parallel with the pandemic and in parallel with the changes in the virus – says the interlocutor.
Red light
The ubiquitous question is what number of infected people is a sign that we need to tighten measures, and when does that famous red light come on?
– The red light is something that is being talked about at the moment and I think there will be special consultations about it. I can’t prejudge, but in any case we can’t behave the same when we have a two-digit number of infected people and when we have a four-digit number. It is clear that there will be differences in measures – Dr. Kon points out.
Although he does not want to prejudge before the consultations at the Crisis Staff, Dr. Kon believes that it is clear that if the measures are tightened, it will certainly go in the direction of limiting the gathering.
– Meetings cannot be approved without first knowing whether people have been vaccinated or not, tested or not. If this is done, then the whole situation is ignored and the impression is imposed that we live without the virus. Everyone who is unvaccinated and goes to rallies must know that their risk of infection and disease, and unfortunately also of diseases of more severe forms, is about 30 times higher than that of vaccinated people – he notes.
He points out that it is not impossible to ban public gatherings if the epidemiological situation is far more serious, but that complete closure is no longer logical.
– At the moment, the reproduction rate is 1.7, which means that there are 70 percent more patients in the last week compared to the previous one. I have the impression that due to the fact that it is summer and that there are still a small number of infected people, so it is relatively small to see, and that the people’s conviction is – let’s blow a little now and it will be easier for all of us, so we will close again. Closing is no longer an option. It simply cannot be, because there is a vaccine – says Dr. Kon.
He emphasizes that it is far more logical to get vaccinated, and not to close oneself.
– It is clear that in a situation like this, when it gets worse, we must primarily use what is most effective, and that is absolutely the vaccine! So, we have the most important and the only means to prevent large waves of the epidemic, and therefore we cannot go back – the epidemiologist underlines.
He adds that the most important thing now is to raise the percentage of vaccinated young people who have the most contacts, and thus prevent waves like the ones at the end of last year.
– I do not believe that this wave will have such intensity as it has been so far. We all want the pandemic to end, and it can end if we all get vaccinated. Young people must understand that there are complete untruths and lies that the vaccine affects fertility and childbirth in any way, and that is one of the main reasons why they say in surveys that they do not want to be vaccinated – says Dr. Kon.
Policy influence
The question arises as to why a restriction for the unvaccinated cannot be introduced, and that politics should be involved in vaccination. The interlocutor believes that it is impossible to carry out such a large public health action as vaccination without the influence of politics.
– On the other hand, politicization and politicking is very counterproductive in this situation. Everyone uses this situation to express their political affiliation. As a representative of public health, I am certainly with the government that can implement certain measures in the interest of health, and at the same time I try to influence it to implement measures in a timely manner – says Dr. Kon.
He adds that, like anyone else in the field of public health, he is not at all interested in whether the vaccine is mandatory or not, but that we will still have an epidemic without collective immunity.
– Lawyers, ethicists, sociologists, psychologists – they are the ones who should indicate whether the obligation is necessary. The goal is to ethically set certain principles in the field of public health. We must understand that it is a normal situation that those who are protected should have more opportunities to move more freely and go to events – he believes.
Constitutional or unconstitutional?
Our interlocutor points out that legally, it must be clearly distinguished which groups of residents really need to be protected, not only for themselves but also for the work they do.
– Honestly, I am very happy to make a decision on the obligation to vaccinate, especially for health workers, as well as to clearly give certain opportunities to vaccinated people. If this is resolved with regard to tobacco smoke, the same can be resolved with regard to vaccination. An increasing number of countries have introduced so-called sanitary passes for vaccinated people, and we will probably be the last to do so – says Dr. Kon.
He believes that there is no discrimination in the case of the introduction of such passes.
– There is no classic discrimination because there is always the possibility that a person attends a gathering if he is tested if he has not been vaccinated. People who deal with whether something is constitutional or not, should first look at the Law on Protection of the Population from Infectious Diseases, and in accordance with that law, all this is possible. If it is unconstitutional, then vaccination should be given up, the Crisis Staff should be dissolved and the virus should be left. The vaccine has been clearly proven, you should not be wise and understand what is best – concludes Dr. Predrag Kon.
The third dose is certain
The National Committee for Immunization proposed giving the third dose of the vaccine on Friday, and Dr. Kon believes that the Republic Expert Commission for Infectious Diseases should give its opinion, and only then should the decision on receiving the third dose go to the Crisis Staff.
– As for the third dose, it is certain and it is very important to make that decision as soon as possible, because it can be seen that in some countries, those who were among the first to be vaccinated started to get sick. There is evidence that immunity is lost more than six months after revaccination. The decision on the third dose may be temporary, but I can’t speculate about that. It is not too early to talk about the combination of vaccines, but there must be evidence that tens of thousands of people have been tested to give an opinion – he states.
“I understand the joy, but I’m sad about the consequences”
About what bothers him the most – 20,000 people at the stadium who do not respect the measures, 10,000 people at concerts or a public transport bus where almost 70 percent of passengers do not wear masks, Dr. Kon says:
– I love these people, nothing bothers me and I can understand joy, but I am sad because of the consequences and not because people are happy. I think it still stands out when you’re in an enclosed space like a bus, where you look directly at people and out of spite, or I don’t know what, don’t wear masks and make fun of those who wear them. I’m starting to understand the extent to which people are frustrated and behave that way.
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