Stevan Nedeljkovic points out that the goals of diplomatic success in the Ukrainian crisis are limited. However, it also points to the importance of the agreement on the export of grain to the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia and other parts of the world, which also solves the issue of hunger around the world.
United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also played a role in reaching the agreement. Each of them has their own agenda, says Nedeljkovic.
“The Turkish president wants to present Turkey as a great power, himself as an important mediator, Guterres of the United Nations as an organization that is not just a shell institution, but that has substance. It is also a success for Zelensky because Ukraine has a problem to keep the economy vital, and grain is one of the key products it exports. The problem is that the quantities are mostly limited. Ukraine previously exported 50 million tons, and the current amount is less than one million,” Nedeljkovic points out.
The UN Secretary General travels first to Lviv, then to Odessa, and then to Istanbul. Moscow is not on his route.
“The scope of diplomacy must be limited when you have such tensions, aggression and war. A step-by-step approach is good. It is symbolic that Guterres is not going to Moscow, that is the message he is sending to the Russian president, but it seems to me that the negotiations themselves and everything that “What is happening gives legitimacy to Russia to conduct negotiations, but not to Putin. I think that the Ministry of Finance or the Ministry of Foreign Affairs within the Russian Federation are the addresses for negotiations on such issues,” says Nedeljković.
What could trigger general mobilization in Russia
In the center of attention of the world public is the largest nuclear power plant in Zaporozhye, which is in the hands of Russian forces. Moscow accuses Ukrainian units of shelling the power plant, which Kiev denies.
“When you have this kind of conflict, quite intense, and tens of thousands of artillery weapons and shells are used on the soil of Ukraine, it is possible for excesses to occur, taking into account nuclear ones. Zaporozhye is the largest nuclear plant, and 36 years ago we had Chernobyl, we can imagine the effects on the territories of Ukraine and the whole of Europe,” Nedeljkovic points out.
Commenting on the explosions in Crimea, Nedeljković pointed out that unlike Luhansk and Donetsk, the Russian Federation considers Crimea to be its territory.
“Crimea is a peninsula, a territory, an administrative line that has been officially accepted into the framework of the Russian Federation, and any attack on Crimea will be interpreted as an attack on the RF, and any attack on Crimea can be used as a reason for the introduction of general mobilization in the RF,” notes Nedeljkovic.
He adds that at the moment the morale on the Russian side is very low.
“But if there is an attack on Crimea, where we see people who bathe and want to live normally, and artillery shelling and bombing changes their way of life, and such images are presented in Moscow and throughout the Russian Federation, it can be a pretext for general mobilization.” , emphasizes the FPN assistant professor.
Strategic lull
Nedeljković points out that since the beginning of July and the capture of Lisičansk, we have had a strategic lull – armed attacks have been conducted, but there have been no major successes after that.
“There is a lull because Russia is trying to provide enough manpower, equipment is not a problem for them. On the other hand, the Ukrainians are trying to provide enough equipment to carry out the long-announced offensive on Kherson and other cities in the south of Ukraine. Given that neither is having much success , the Russians in the mobilization of manpower, and the Ukrainians in the mobilization of equipment and manpower, we are witnessing a lull that will last for some time,” explains Nedeljković.
He points out that if there are no significant diplomatic initiatives and a desire for compromise and if there is no trust on both sides, we can witness a prolonged conflict that will last and benefit no one, especially not the parties involved in the conflict.
How much the sanctions actually affect Russia
Nedeljkovic assesses that Russia is certainly affected by the sanctions, even though we have the appearance of a high-quality and good economic situation in Russia.
“Russia is recording higher profits from the sale of energy products, which is conditioned by energy prices that can be short-lived. The ruble is growing, but thanks to state intervention. From weapons to information technology, Russia is experiencing problems, ask ordinary citizens if their incomes have increased, they will probably tell you that they live worse, statistics don’t always tell everything, although they are a very important tool,” Nedeljkovic points out.
He adds that the sanctions are deeply affecting the Russian Federation, although Moscow has tried to build what is called Fortress Moscow, to be resistant to sanctions.
“By seizing the foreign exchange reserves it had abroad, it was shown that you cannot be completely resistant to blows from the side. The Russian Federation is trying to find alternative energy importers to the Far East and South Asia, and it does sell oil and gas, but at a price lower than the market price. Even Saudi Arabia imports Russian oil precisely because it is cheaper and they benefit from it,” explained FPN assistant professor Stevan Nedeljković.
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